A horse with a class advantage over the rest of the field is a positive angle to take advantage
Class matters more with older horses, not so much with the younger horses that are still improving.
A horse dropping down in class that showed some
sign of life in its previous race, was within a few lengths
of the lead at some point in the race, contentious, is a positive sign that a big race is upcoming, a horse
that likes to be on the lead will carry speed longer when dropping down in
dropping down from Grade 1 races into Grade 2 and 3 races are always dangerous.
Deciding on who has the best class is very simple, just look at a horses best race against
better company, a Grade 1 winner in a field with no other Grade 1 winners
has the class advantage.
Another formula is calculating the purse money for a horses last 3 races, then dividing by
3, this gives you a good idea of the horses recent class, which is more important
than back class from months prior.
Once you calculate the average purse money of each horse, take into consideration how many
lengths they were beaten by and in what position they finished in those races, just
dropping down in class is not enough, they need to show something
positive in those races.