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The first thing we have got to find is a team that fits
the profile of a Champion, so we go through a list of important
factors that a champion must posess... 1-A good experienced coach, key on their past performance in the playoffs, having a proven
winner as a coach is a big positive, guys like Pat Riley, Phil Jackson, Greg Popovich,
those are the kind of guys you want calling the shots.
2-The Center or a big man who can play defense and grab all those defensive rebounds is a major
ingredient in winning a NBA Championship, Shaquille O'Neal, Ben Wallace, Tim Duncan,
the presence of players like that on the court is very intimidating
to the opposition, it also gives their own players more freedom on the court, if a team doesn't
have a good big man we're not going to put our money on them.
3-A winning
record on the road during the regular season, this eliminates
almost everyone, as the home team wins at a 65% and up rate on average, which is extremely high, but after
you do this you are left with only about 5-6 teams usually, take a look at
how many NBA Champions had losing records on the road during
the regular season, very few.
4-Team Rebounding, 2005 NBA Champion Miami
ranked #2 overall in team rebounding percentage, losing finalists Dallas
ranked #3, 2004 NBA Champion San Antonio ranked #6 overall(#1 in Defensive Rebounding percentage), losing finalists
Detroit ranked #1 overall.
5-Blocked
Shots, another defensive category to focus in on, past NBA Champions typically rank high in this category.
6-Of
course we need a champion on the team, someone to keep the young players cool and who has been through the pressure,
this is invaluable, these guys always seem to come through in the
clutch.
Key on those 6 factors, if you find a team that meets the
above standards you can be pretty sure they will do some serious
damage in the playoffs. When placing your futures bet, be patient as usual, wait for your
team to hit a bad run somewhere during the season, a few years
back we hit San Antonio at 40-1 odds in the first half of the season, they were lumbering along in 9th place in
their conference, and out of a playoff spot, they then went a massive
tear straight to the NBA Championship. Another example is Detroit
a few years ago when they won the Championship, they were 40-1 and only 2 wins away from the NBA Finals, against
New Jersey in the Eastern Conference Finals they were down 3-2 in the
series.
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The Forumla
This
little formula has been good to us in the past, i assign a number value to each category then add them together
for an overall score, once i find a few teams i consider serious contenders
i put them on my watch list and wait for them to show up at
a good price.
Coaching - Lifetime win % + playoff win % bonus + NBA Championship bonus Center or Big Man- Win/Loss % + playoff record bonus + NBA
Championship bonus (you can see each players record at Database Basketball, click the player your are interested in then navigate around to the team,
year, and game logs to view playoff performance, it's quite
a chore gathering all this info but at least it's available to
those interested. Road Record - Make sure your team has an
above .500 record on the road. (you can get these stats at NBA.com from the official website) Team Rebounding % - Overall team rebounding percentage (you
can find these stats at ESPN-Stats, go through each team and look at the total sacks number at the bottom of the defensive stats section) Blocked
Shots - Teams average Blocked Shots per game and overall ranking *If the ESPN links don't
work(the url's are changed or removed), go to ESPN Stats Index and select your category from the drop down menu.
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